Copa Libertadores qualifying 1st Round Final
Global 0-2
Defensor Sporting vs Olimpia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.6%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.5%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.3%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.2%
21.1%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2012 |
DEF
2 - 0
CER
72%
18%
10%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2012 |
DEF
1 - 0
CEL
68%
20%
12%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2012 |
RIV
1 - 1
DEF
42%
25%
33%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2012 |
DEF
4 - 0
BVS
70%
19%
11%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2012 |
FEN
1 - 3
DEF
28%
26%
46%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Olimpia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec. 2012 |
CAR
4 - 1
OLI
27%
28%
45%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2012 |
OLI
1 - 0
AME
59%
23%
18%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2012 |
OLI
0 - 0
CER
71%
19%
10%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 1
OLI
37%
27%
36%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2012 |
OLI
2 - 2
TAC
75%
17%
8%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | -1 |