Copa Sudamericana 1/16
Global 5-4
Defensor Sporting vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.4%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
20%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
20%
15.6%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun. 2008 |
DEF
0 - 0
PEÑ
53%
23%
24%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2008 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
DEF
56%
22%
22%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2008 |
BVS
1 - 2
DEF
26%
27%
47%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2008 |
DEF
3 - 3
CEN
74%
16%
10%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2008 |
DEF
5 - 3
CSM
75%
16%
9%
|
83 | 64 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2008 |
CCP
0 - 0
LIB
44%
27%
29%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2008 |
LIB
1 - 1
GUA
56%
23%
20%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2008 |
SAN
1 - 2
LIB
36%
27%
37%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2008 |
LIB
1 - 0
PET
74%
18%
8%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2008 |
LIB
2 - 0
TAC
62%
21%
16%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |