Copa Sudamericana 1/32
Global 4-3
Defensor Sporting vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59.6%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
18.5%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.2%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 2007 |
GRE
2 - 0
DEF
52%
25%
23%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 0
GRE
52%
23%
25%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2007 |
CSM
1 - 0
DEF
33%
27%
40%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2007 |
FLA
2 - 0
DEF
46%
25%
28%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2007 |
DEF
0 - 2
DAN
50%
24%
26%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2007 |
LIB
3 - 2
CCP
45%
26%
29%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2007 |
TAC
2 - 1
LIB
38%
29%
34%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2007 |
LIB
3 - 1
12O
66%
21%
13%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2007 |
SPT
0 - 1
LIB
26%
29%
46%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2007 |
LIB
0 - 0
GUA
64%
22%
14%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |