Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
Global 2-2
Defensor Sporting vs Grêmio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52.2%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.2%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
24.5%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2007 |
CSM
1 - 0
DEF
33%
27%
40%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2007 |
FLA
2 - 0
DEF
46%
25%
28%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2007 |
DEF
0 - 2
DAN
50%
24%
26%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 May. 2007 |
DEF
3 - 0
FLA
59%
22%
20%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Apr. 2007 |
TAC
0 - 0
DEF
24%
26%
50%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 2007 |
PAR
3 - 0
GRE
41%
26%
33%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2007 |
GRE
2 - 0
SAO
29%
26%
45%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2007 |
GRE
4 - 1
JUV
60%
22%
19%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
| 03 May. 2007 |
SAO
1 - 0
GRE
69%
19%
12%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 2007 |
JUV
3 - 3
GRE
39%
26%
35%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |