Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 3-2
Defensor Sporting vs Flamengo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58.6%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
19.6%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2007 |
TAC
0 - 0
DEF
24%
26%
50%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2007 |
DEF
3 - 0
NAC
54%
23%
23%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2007 |
CEN
0 - 3
DEF
26%
28%
46%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2007 |
GLP
3 - 0
DEF
33%
24%
43%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2007 |
DEF
3 - 2
PRO
65%
21%
14%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Flamengo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2007 |
FLA
2 - 2
BOT
52%
24%
24%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2007 |
FLA
1 - 0
RPO
59%
21%
20%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 08 Apr. 2007 |
FLA
4 - 1
AME
81%
14%
5%
|
80 | 54 | 26 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2007 |
MAR
1 - 2
FLA
33%
27%
40%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2007 |
FRI
1 - 2
FLA
22%
24%
53%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |