Def. Belgrano vs Atletico Rafaela analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
24.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.5%
2-0
4.2%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.5%
28.9%
Draw
0-0
12.2%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
28.9%
46.9%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
15.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
25.3%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
13.9%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.1%
-3
5.4%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Def. Belgrano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2019 |
QUI
1 - 0
DEF
68%
22%
11%
|
55 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2019 |
GIM
0 - 0
DEF
63%
23%
14%
|
56 | 61 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 2019 |
DEF
0 - 1
ARS
15%
26%
59%
|
58 | 74 | 16 | -2 |
| 14 Apr. 2019 |
AGR
1 - 0
DEF
53%
28%
19%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2019 |
DEF
2 - 1
DAL
22%
27%
51%
|
57 | 66 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Atletico Rafaela
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2019 |
RAF
1 - 2
TIG
21%
25%
54%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2019 |
BRO
1 - 1
RAF
45%
27%
28%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | -2 |
| 20 Jun. 2019 |
BHU
1 - 0
RAF
6%
17%
77%
|
66 | 35 | 31 | -2 |
| 19 Apr. 2019 |
IRV
1 - 1
RAF
43%
29%
29%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2019 |
RAF
0 - 1
MOR
55%
25%
21%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | -1 |