Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 6-3
CSA vs Serra Macaense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.1%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.3%
4-0
6.5%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.1%
3-0
10.4%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16%
2-0
12.6%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.2%
8.7%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.4%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CSA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2009 |
CSA
1 - 2
IGA
68%
18%
14%
|
44 | 34 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2009 |
SER
2 - 3
CSA
29%
27%
44%
|
43 | 24 | 19 | +1 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
IPA
1 - 0
CSA
49%
25%
26%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | -1 |
| 13 Feb. 2009 |
CSA
3 - 1
COR
54%
25%
22%
|
43 | 46 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2009 |
CSA
0 - 1
COR
28%
25%
48%
|
43 | 57 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Serra Macaense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2009 |
SER
2 - 3
CSA
29%
27%
44%
|
24 | 43 | 19 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2008 |
SER
1 - 3
RBC
62%
21%
17%
|
25 | 19 | 6 | -1 |
| 06 Sep. 2008 |
AFC
3 - 0
SER
63%
20%
16%
|
26 | 35 | 9 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2008 |
SER
0 - 0
ITA
59%
22%
20%
|
26 | 21 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2008 |
SER
0 - 1
GOY
18%
23%
59%
|
26 | 55 | 29 | 0 |