CSA vs Penedense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.9%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.8%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.5%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
17%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17%
11.1%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+33%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CSA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
CEO
2 - 1
CSA
33%
26%
41%
|
48 | 37 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
CSA
0 - 0
CEO
73%
16%
11%
|
49 | 37 | 12 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2012 |
PEN
0 - 2
CSA
28%
28%
45%
|
48 | 35 | 13 | +1 |
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
CSA
4 - 0
COR
35%
24%
41%
|
46 | 54 | 8 | +2 |
| 02 Feb. 2012 |
ASA
0 - 0
CSA
78%
15%
8%
|
46 | 63 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Penedense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2012 |
PEN
0 - 4
CSE
25%
27%
48%
|
34 | 43 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
CSE
2 - 2
PEN
69%
19%
13%
|
34 | 43 | 9 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2012 |
PEN
0 - 2
CSA
28%
28%
45%
|
35 | 48 | 13 | -1 |
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
CEO
4 - 2
PEN
45%
23%
32%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | -2 |
| 01 Feb. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 0
MUR
18%
24%
59%
|
35 | 55 | 20 | +2 |