UCL Qualifying Second Round Final
Global 3-2
Crvena Zvezda vs HJK Helsinki analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
72%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.8%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.5%
2-0
12%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
17.1%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.1%
10.9%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crvena Zvezda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2019 |
CRV
2 - 0
JAV
86%
11%
4%
|
87 | 68 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2019 |
CRV
2 - 1
SUD
69%
18%
14%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | -1 |
| 09 Jul. 2019 |
SUD
0 - 0
CRV
20%
23%
57%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2019 |
CRV
1 - 3
FCB
85%
11%
4%
|
88 | 55 | 33 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2019 |
CRV
0 - 1
ZEN
63%
20%
17%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
HJK Helsinki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2019 |
ILV
1 - 1
HJK
31%
27%
42%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2019 |
HBT
2 - 2
HJK
48%
24%
28%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2019 |
HJK
3 - 0
HBT
55%
24%
21%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 04 Jul. 2019 |
HIF
0 - 2
HJK
17%
25%
58%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2019 |
HJK
1 - 1
KUO
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |