Crespi vs Muggio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
9.7%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.1%
1-0
3.3%
2-1
2.8%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.1%
16.5%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.5%
73.8%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.1%
0-2
12.8%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.7%
0-3
10%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
15.1%
0-4
5.9%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
8.2%
0-5
2.8%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.6%
0-6
1.1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.4%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+72%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crespi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2014 |
CIN
2 - 1
CRE
85%
11%
5%
|
11 | 34 | 23 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2014 |
SPE
6 - 0
CRE
86%
10%
4%
|
12 | 40 | 28 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
CRE
2 - 4
CIT
12%
18%
70%
|
12 | 25 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
CAR
4 - 0
CRE
84%
11%
5%
|
12 | 27 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
CRE
1 - 3
COB
13%
19%
68%
|
13 | 26 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Muggio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2014 |
MUG
1 - 0
CIT
68%
18%
14%
|
37 | 27 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2014 |
CAR
1 - 1
MUG
27%
22%
51%
|
38 | 27 | 11 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
MUG
4 - 0
COB
73%
16%
11%
|
38 | 25 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
CRI
2 - 3
MUG
11%
18%
71%
|
37 | 15 | 22 | +1 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
MUG
6 - 1
REA
87%
10%
4%
|
37 | 7 | 30 | 0 |