Connah's Quay vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.9%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.9%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
20.9%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
2º
11º
2º
15
8º
12º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2023 |
TNS
6 - 2
CON
66%
20%
15%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CON
70%
17%
13%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2023 |
CON
0 - 2
KAA
30%
25%
45%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 2023 |
KAA
2 - 0
CON
56%
23%
21%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | -1 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
STR
1 - 1
CON
15%
22%
63%
|
68 | 48 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
ABE
0 - 1
CAR
28%
27%
45%
|
57 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
BAR
1 - 2
ABE
43%
23%
34%
|
56 | 56 | 0 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
ABE
3 - 2
CAE
35%
25%
40%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 1
ABE
57%
23%
20%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | +1 |
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
ABE
1 - 1
AIR
83%
12%
6%
|
55 | 39 | 16 | 0 |