Connah's Quay vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.4%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
13%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22.2%
14.4%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-22%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
44
2º
12º
2º
22
4º
11º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec. 2022 |
AIR
1 - 2
CON
14%
24%
62%
|
69 | 47 | 22 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2022 |
CON
2 - 0
TAF
82%
13%
5%
|
68 | 42 | 26 | +1 |
| 18 Nov. 2022 |
CON
3 - 3
CAE
49%
26%
26%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
CON
4 - 0
COL
68%
19%
12%
|
69 | 53 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
PON
0 - 5
CON
24%
28%
48%
|
69 | 51 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec. 2022 |
TNS
11 - 0
ABE
77%
15%
8%
|
57 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2022 |
ABE
2 - 1
PON
63%
20%
17%
|
56 | 51 | 5 | +1 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
ABE
1 - 3
NEW
28%
22%
51%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2022 |
BAL
3 - 0
ABE
73%
17%
10%
|
58 | 69 | 11 | -1 |
| 28 Oct. 2022 |
ABE
2 - 1
FLI
40%
25%
35%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | +1 |