CONCACAF Champions Quarter-finals
Global 4-5
Columbus Crew vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
37.6%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.8%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
27.3%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.3%
35%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
10.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.9%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Columbus Crew
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2009 |
COC
2 - 3
RSL
50%
25%
25%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2009 |
RSL
1 - 0
COC
39%
27%
34%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | -1 |
| 25 Oct. 2009 |
COC
0 - 1
NER
55%
25%
20%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 2009 |
PRI
1 - 1
COC
31%
26%
44%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2009 |
DCU
1 - 0
COC
45%
25%
30%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2010 |
ATS
1 - 1
TOL
39%
28%
33%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2010 |
TOL
3 - 0
IND
62%
23%
16%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2010 |
MOR
0 - 0
TOL
49%
26%
25%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2010 |
TOL
3 - 1
AME
50%
26%
24%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2010 |
SAN
1 - 0
TOL
53%
24%
23%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |