FA Cup 1/1024
Global 4-2
Chorley vs Runcorn Linnets analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.5%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.6%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.4%
18.1%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chorley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
RUN
1 - 1
CHO
25%
25%
51%
|
51 | 42 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
CUR
0 - 1
CHO
49%
25%
26%
|
50 | 51 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2023 |
TAM
2 - 1
CHO
57%
23%
20%
|
51 | 53 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
CHO
2 - 1
BIS
37%
28%
36%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2023 |
SOU
0 - 2
CHO
18%
24%
58%
|
49 | 35 | 14 | +1 |
Matches
Runcorn Linnets
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
RUN
1 - 1
CHO
25%
25%
51%
|
42 | 51 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
RUN
0 - 0
WIT
51%
24%
25%
|
42 | 39 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2023 |
RUN
3 - 2
CHA
29%
22%
49%
|
41 | 45 | 4 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
CHA
2 - 2
RUN
52%
21%
27%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2023 |
RUN
4 - 2
WIT
41%
26%
33%
|
39 | 41 | 2 | +2 |