Chapecoense vs Hercílio Luz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.2%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.7%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.3%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
21.1%
13.3%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
CHA
3 - 1
VIT
32%
28%
40%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2023 |
ITU
0 - 0
CHA
54%
25%
21%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
CHA
2 - 0
BOT
45%
29%
26%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Nov. 2023 |
CRB
3 - 2
CHA
56%
25%
19%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2023 |
CHA
1 - 2
TOM
47%
28%
25%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
HER
2 - 2
FER
47%
28%
24%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
FER
1 - 1
HER
39%
30%
31%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
HER
2 - 0
AIM
65%
22%
13%
|
61 | 47 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
NOV
5 - 5
HER
23%
31%
46%
|
61 | 48 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
HER
3 - 0
IND
53%
27%
20%
|
60 | 50 | 10 | +1 |