UCL Qualifying First Round Final
Global 5-2
Celtic vs Sarajevo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.3%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
16.4%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Celtic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2019 |
CEL
0 - 0
REN
59%
22%
20%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2019 |
SAR
1 - 3
CEL
34%
26%
41%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2019 |
WIE
1 - 2
CEL
8%
17%
75%
|
86 | 47 | 39 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2019 |
PIN
1 - 6
CEL
5%
13%
83%
|
86 | 25 | 61 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2019 |
HOM
1 - 2
CEL
19%
22%
59%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Sarajevo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2019 |
SAR
1 - 3
CEL
34%
26%
41%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2019 |
DOM
3 - 2
SAR
48%
24%
28%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2019 |
SAR
0 - 2
SLO
65%
21%
15%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2019 |
GOS
0 - 2
SAR
8%
20%
72%
|
81 | 56 | 25 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2019 |
SAR
4 - 0
ZBE
78%
15%
7%
|
81 | 62 | 19 | 0 |