Coppa Italia Serie C . Final
Global 5-4
Catania vs Padova analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.7%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.3%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.4%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
45.3%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
13.7%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Catania
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2024 |
CAT
2 - 3
SSC
52%
26%
22%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
TUR
2 - 1
CAT
27%
27%
47%
|
59 | 50 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2024 |
PAD
2 - 1
CAT
49%
25%
26%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
CAT
2 - 1
AUD
47%
27%
27%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | +1 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
CAT
0 - 0
RPO
61%
23%
16%
|
59 | 52 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Padova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2024 |
PAD
2 - 1
PER
68%
21%
11%
|
66 | 49 | 17 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2024 |
UDI
2 - 3
PAD
79%
14%
7%
|
65 | 84 | 19 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
LEO
2 - 0
PAD
13%
24%
63%
|
66 | 47 | 19 | -1 |
| 19 Mar. 2024 |
PAD
2 - 1
CAT
49%
25%
26%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
PAD
0 - 0
ABN
68%
21%
11%
|
65 | 50 | 15 | 0 |