Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58.1%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.7%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
18.3%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+30%
-13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
55
1º
6º
2º
27
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
52 | 79 |
1º
|
63% | |
|
|
1º
|
55 | 79 |
2º
|
63% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 61 |
3º
|
63.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 59 |
4º
|
55% | |
|
|
5º
|
27 | 45 |
5º
|
56% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 39 |
6º
|
30.5% | |
|
7º
|
21 | 37 |
7º
|
26% | |
|
9º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
18.5% | |
|
8º
|
19 | 34 |
9º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
17 | 32 |
10º
|
49% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
37% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
63% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 95.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 3% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 1% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Riga FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
CAR
3 - 0
FKJ
63%
22%
15%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2025 |
AUD
1 - 3
CAR
37%
26%
36%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2025 |
CAR
2 - 0
SUP
62%
22%
16%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2025 |
CAR
3 - 1
RIG
39%
26%
36%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
GRO
0 - 2
CAR
31%
24%
46%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
BFC Daugavpils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun. 2025 |
BFC
1 - 7
RIG
31%
25%
44%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2025 |
BFC
3 - 2
GRO
49%
24%
27%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
BFC
1 - 2
FKT
53%
23%
24%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | -1 |
| 17 Jun. 2025 |
FSM
2 - 2
BFC
34%
26%
39%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | +1 |
| 13 Jun. 2025 |
LIE
1 - 1
BFC
58%
24%
18%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | 0 |