C. Guarnizo vs UM Escobedo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.3%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
3.1%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
8.1%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.5%
70.4%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
13.3%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.4%
0-3
9.5%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
13.6%
0-4
5.1%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.8%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
C. Guarnizo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2008 |
MAR
1 - 0
CGU
73%
17%
10%
|
12 | 20 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2008 |
CGU
0 - 1
SOL
40%
25%
35%
|
13 | 14 | 1 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2008 |
RAY
0 - 1
CGU
85%
11%
4%
|
11 | 28 | 17 | +2 |
Matches
UM Escobedo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2008 |
ESC
3 - 1
REO
60%
22%
17%
|
34 | 31 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2008 |
SAN
0 - 3
ESC
15%
23%
62%
|
34 | 19 | 15 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2008 |
ESC
0 - 1
GIM
25%
24%
51%
|
35 | 46 | 11 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2008 |
TRO
0 - 1
ESC
31%
26%
43%
|
35 | 28 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2008 |
ESC
6 - 0
BAR
85%
11%
4%
|
35 | 14 | 21 | 0 |