B. Dortmund vs Köln analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
74.2%
Win probability
2.6
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.1%
3-0
9%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.5%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
15.4%
10.4%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.2%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
63
4º
9º
5º
27
11º
18º
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
90 | 90 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
73 | 73 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
72 | 72 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
63 | 63 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 46 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 42 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
42 | 42 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
39 | 39 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
37 | 37 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
35 | 35 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
34 | 34 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
33 | 33 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
|
17º
|
27 | 27 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 17 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
100% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
SMA
1 - 6
BVB
3%
10%
87%
|
91 | 46 | 45 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2023 |
BVB
3 - 1
AJA
63%
19%
18%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2023 |
CHL
1 - 1
BVB
32%
24%
44%
|
91 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2023 |
BVB
3 - 2
MUD
32%
24%
44%
|
91 | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2023 |
SDL
0 - 6
BVB
4%
10%
86%
|
91 | 57 | 34 | 0 |
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2023 |
OSN
1 - 3
KOL
22%
23%
55%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2023 |
KOL
3 - 1
JON
64%
20%
16%
|
84 | 65 | 19 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
KOL
2 - 0
NAN
64%
21%
15%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
KOL
2 - 0
ERZ
74%
17%
10%
|
84 | 59 | 25 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2023 |
KÖL
2 - 2
KOL
6%
13%
81%
|
84 | 51 | 33 | 0 |