Bologna vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66.3%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.2%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.2%
13.5%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bologna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2012 |
BOL
0 - 2
GRO
76%
16%
8%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2012 |
PAR
1 - 0
BOL
58%
24%
19%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
BOL
2 - 0
NAP
28%
26%
46%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | +1 |
| 02 May. 2012 |
CAT
0 - 1
BOL
52%
26%
22%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
BOL
3 - 2
GEN
46%
26%
28%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2012 |
VAR
2 - 1
PON
79%
15%
6%
|
73 | 46 | 27 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2012 |
VAR
2 - 4
RSO
30%
27%
43%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2012 |
PAR
2 - 2
VAR
71%
18%
11%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2012 |
VAR
0 - 1
SAM
38%
28%
34%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2012 |
SAM
3 - 2
VAR
62%
22%
16%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | -1 |