Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.7%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.2%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.1%
3-0
11%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.1%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.7%
15.3%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
15.3%
8%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
-23%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
38
1º
8º
2º
8
12º
16º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
41 | 65 |
1º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
38 | 62 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 61 |
3º
|
27.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 58 |
4º
|
41% | |
|
6º
|
25 | 51 |
5º
|
46.5% | |
|
5º
|
28 | 46 |
6º
|
33.5% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 44 |
7º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 38 |
8º
|
21.5% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 38 |
9º
|
26.5% | |
|
9º
|
22 | 37 |
10º
|
18.5% | |
|
7º
|
23 | 35 |
11º
|
26% | |
|
13º
|
16 | 32 |
12º
|
26% | |
|
12º
|
17 | 29 |
13º
|
33% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 25 |
14º
|
33.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
8 | 23 |
15º
|
32% | |
|
15º
|
8 | 20 |
16º
|
63.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
32% | 0% |
|
AFC Champions League Elite qualifying phase
|
33% | 0% |
|
AFC Champions League 2
|
21% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
14% | 43.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 56.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Beijing Guoan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May. 2025 |
HKF
0 - 5
BEI
21%
22%
57%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
QIN
1 - 1
BEI
15%
22%
64%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
BEI
3 - 1
SJF
77%
16%
7%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2025 |
DAL
0 - 2
BEI
20%
24%
56%
|
82 | 62 | 20 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2025 |
SHA
1 - 2
BEI
47%
23%
30%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Changchun Yatai
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May. 2025 |
HFC
1 - 1
CHA
3%
7%
89%
|
67 | 44 | 23 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
CHA
1 - 2
TIT
30%
26%
44%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
CHA
0 - 1
HEN
40%
27%
33%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | -1 |
| 05 May. 2025 |
QIN
3 - 0
CHA
34%
26%
40%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2025 |
HAN
4 - 2
CHA
64%
20%
17%
|
69 | 78 | 9 | -1 |