Basel vs Winterthur analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.6%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.1%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.2%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
16.7%
8.8%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
6º
12º
9º
49
4º
12º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2023 |
BAS
1 - 3
TOB
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
STG
2 - 1
BAS
38%
24%
39%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2023 |
OLD
0 - 3
BAS
5%
13%
83%
|
84 | 38 | 46 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
BAS
1 - 3
SLB
27%
24%
49%
|
84 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
FCV
1 - 2
BAS
16%
22%
63%
|
84 | 65 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
0 - 0
FCL
23%
24%
54%
|
68 | 80 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
3 - 1
VIL
51%
23%
26%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
5 - 0
BAD
69%
18%
13%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
5 - 0
SCB
74%
16%
10%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | +1 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
2 - 0
FCA
39%
23%
39%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | 0 |