Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.2%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
26.8%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
1º
4º
1º
49
3º
6º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
49 | 9 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 8 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 7 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
29 | 6 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
45 | 5 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
|
2º
|
49 | 5 |
6º
|
0% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 1
BAS
32%
24%
44%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 1
SER
43%
25%
32%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
STA
0 - 2
BAS
20%
22%
59%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 0
BAS
38%
25%
37%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
ZUR
46%
25%
29%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 1
BAS
32%
24%
44%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
YOB
4 - 2
FCL
55%
22%
23%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
FCL
0 - 0
LAU
54%
24%
22%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 0
YVE
58%
23%
20%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 2024 |
STG
1 - 1
FCL
51%
23%
26%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |