Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.9%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.2%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.8%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
23%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
25%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
6º
12º
9º
44
2º
7º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
YVE
3 - 2
BAS
16%
20%
64%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
FCB
0 - 8
BAS
3%
10%
87%
|
83 | 17 | 66 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 2
ZUR
49%
23%
28%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
FCS
1 - 8
BAS
3%
10%
87%
|
83 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
BAS
1 - 2
LAU
74%
17%
9%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | -1 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
FCL
2 - 0
SER
47%
24%
30%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
THU
1 - 3
FCL
28%
24%
49%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2023 |
HOF
3 - 1
FCL
63%
20%
18%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
FCL
3 - 2
LUG
36%
25%
39%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
GCZ
0 - 1
FCL
33%
25%
42%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |