Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.7%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.2%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.9%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
37.4%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
-12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
61
1º
10º
1º
49
1º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
61 | 61 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
55 | 55 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
53 | 53 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
51 | 51 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 47 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
47 | 47 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
33 | 33 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
33 | 33 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 30 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
LAU
3 - 2
BAS
27%
24%
49%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 1
ULM
63%
21%
16%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
4 - 0
BEL
78%
15%
7%
|
85 | 63 | 22 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 1
GÓR
56%
22%
22%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 1
EBT
65%
20%
15%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 4
FEN
39%
26%
35%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 1
GCZ
57%
23%
20%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2024 |
INT
3 - 2
LUG
86%
10%
4%
|
85 | 99 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 1
PAR
43%
26%
32%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
0 - 1
FCA
72%
17%
11%
|
85 | 67 | 18 | 0 |