Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.4%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.1%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.9%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
32.9%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
YVE
0 - 2
BAS
18%
22%
60%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
GCZ
2 - 1
BAS
24%
23%
53%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 0
STG
44%
24%
32%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
BAS
0 - 1
LUG
44%
24%
32%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 3
BAS
21%
22%
57%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 0
ZUR
40%
26%
35%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
SER
2 - 1
LUG
39%
24%
37%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 3
YOB
34%
26%
40%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
BAS
0 - 1
LUG
44%
24%
32%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
0 - 0
GCZ
55%
24%
21%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |