Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.4%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.4%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.4%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.1%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.6%
32%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
6º
12º
9º
59
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 3
BAS
21%
22%
57%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 0
YOB
39%
25%
36%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
ZUR
0 - 0
BAS
45%
23%
32%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
SGF
59%
21%
19%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 3
FCA
66%
20%
15%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
0 - 0
GCZ
55%
24%
21%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
STG
1 - 4
LUG
49%
22%
29%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 3
STA
61%
23%
17%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
1 - 1
FCP
81%
14%
5%
|
81 | 55 | 26 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2024 |
LUG
1 - 0
SCH
72%
17%
11%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |