Basel vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.2%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
15.3%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
-12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
3º
7º
5º
57
2º
10º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2022 |
BAS
2 - 1
BIF
62%
20%
18%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2022 |
BAS
0 - 0
YOB
39%
24%
37%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
BIF
1 - 0
BAS
24%
24%
53%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2022 |
CRU
1 - 1
BAS
24%
24%
52%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
BAS
1 - 1
SER
70%
18%
12%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2022 |
HBS
3 - 1
LUG
52%
23%
25%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 2
FCL
39%
26%
35%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
LUG
0 - 2
HBS
32%
27%
41%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 31 Jul. 2022 |
WIN
1 - 4
LUG
26%
25%
49%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | +1 |
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
GCZ
2 - 1
LUG
30%
25%
45%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | -1 |