UCL Qualifying Second Round Final
Global 5-0
Basel vs FC Flora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.3%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.5%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.4%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
17.1%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.7%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2012 |
BAS
2 - 2
FCL
66%
19%
15%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2012 |
FLO
0 - 2
BAS
36%
24%
41%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2012 |
SER
0 - 1
BAS
24%
23%
54%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2012 |
BAS
1 - 2
YOB
56%
21%
22%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2012 |
SER
2 - 1
BAS
22%
22%
56%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
FC Flora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2012 |
KAL
2 - 0
FLO
38%
24%
38%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2012 |
FLO
0 - 2
BAS
36%
24%
41%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | -1 |
| 11 Jul. 2012 |
ESV
0 - 6
FLO
3%
8%
89%
|
78 | 20 | 58 | +1 |
| 30 Jun. 2012 |
FLO
3 - 0
SIK
79%
14%
8%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2012 |
FLO
5 - 0
VIL
86%
11%
4%
|
78 | 48 | 30 | 0 |