Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.8%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.7%
16.4%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2014 |
FCV
0 - 4
BAS
22%
24%
54%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2014 |
BAS
4 - 0
LUD
56%
24%
21%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2014 |
BAS
2 - 0
GCZ
54%
24%
22%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2014 |
WOH
1 - 3
BAS
15%
21%
64%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2014 |
BAS
1 - 1
SIO
62%
23%
16%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2014 |
FCA
0 - 1
ZUR
27%
24%
49%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2014 |
SIO
2 - 2
FCA
46%
26%
28%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
| 29 Oct. 2014 |
FCL
1 - 2
FCA
49%
25%
26%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | +3 |
| 25 Oct. 2014 |
THU
0 - 0
FCA
58%
22%
20%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
FCA
0 - 3
STG
39%
26%
36%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | 0 |