Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.3%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.7%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18.5%
10.2%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2009 |
FCL
1 - 2
BAS
22%
23%
54%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2009 |
BAS
2 - 1
ZUR
45%
24%
30%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
BAS
0 - 0
GCZ
51%
24%
26%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2009 |
YOB
3 - 2
BAS
53%
22%
25%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2008 |
FCL
5 - 1
BAS
20%
23%
57%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb. 2009 |
FCA
0 - 3
GCZ
29%
26%
44%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2009 |
YOB
4 - 0
FCA
77%
15%
8%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | -1 |
| 14 Feb. 2009 |
FCA
0 - 0
NEX
50%
26%
24%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2009 |
FCV
1 - 1
FCA
39%
27%
34%
|
74 | 63 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2008 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCA
72%
18%
11%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |