Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73.2%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.8%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.7%
2-0
13.3%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.8%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
17.1%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.1%
9.7%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.2%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb. 2008 |
BAS
0 - 3
SCP
44%
26%
31%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2008 |
ZUR
1 - 1
BAS
40%
25%
35%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2008 |
SCP
2 - 0
BAS
52%
24%
25%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2008 |
BAS
3 - 0
NEX
71%
17%
12%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2008 |
YOB
2 - 0
BAS
45%
24%
32%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb. 2008 |
FCA
1 - 2
GCZ
34%
26%
40%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2008 |
FCL
2 - 0
FCA
47%
26%
27%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2008 |
FCA
3 - 1
STG
46%
26%
29%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2007 |
FCA
2 - 2
STG
46%
26%
28%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2007 |
ZUR
0 - 1
FCA
73%
17%
10%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | +1 |