Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
74.6%
Win probability
2.52
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.2%
4-0
6%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.9%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.5%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
15.6%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.6%
9.8%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2003 |
WIL
2 - 3
BAS
27%
22%
50%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2003 |
BAS
4 - 2
NEX
68%
18%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2003 |
YOB
2 - 3
BAS
32%
23%
45%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2003 |
BAS
2 - 1
ZUR
70%
18%
12%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 31 May. 2003 |
BAS
3 - 0
NEX
66%
19%
15%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2003 |
FCA
1 - 1
SER
34%
25%
42%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2003 |
STG
0 - 0
FCA
55%
23%
22%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2003 |
FCA
2 - 1
GCZ
24%
22%
54%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2003 |
THU
1 - 1
FCA
45%
25%
31%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 May. 2003 |
SIO
3 - 1
FCA
37%
26%
38%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | -2 |