Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
46.2%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.9%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
27.2%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.1%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+21%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1996 |
SIO
2 - 0
BAS
61%
22%
17%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1996 |
BAS
1 - 2
NEX
38%
26%
35%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 1996 |
SER
1 - 1
BAS
48%
26%
26%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1995 |
GCZ
1 - 3
BAS
68%
20%
12%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | +2 |
| 03 Dec. 1995 |
BAS
0 - 0
STG
53%
24%
23%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1996 |
FCA
2 - 2
FCL
51%
25%
24%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1996 |
GCZ
0 - 0
FCA
61%
22%
17%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1996 |
FCA
4 - 0
STG
57%
24%
20%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1995 |
STG
0 - 0
FCA
45%
26%
29%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Dec. 1995 |
FCA
3 - 0
LAU
64%
20%
16%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | +2 |