Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.2%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.9%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.9%
17.9%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 1986 |
BAS
5 - 3
ZUR
43%
24%
33%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1986 |
FCL
2 - 0
BAS
56%
22%
21%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1986 |
BAS
3 - 1
LOC
74%
17%
9%
|
73 | 57 | 16 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1986 |
VEV
2 - 2
BAS
45%
28%
28%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 1986 |
SIO
3 - 1
BAS
66%
19%
15%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 1986 |
FCA
0 - 2
SIO
48%
24%
28%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1986 |
LOC
0 - 1
FCA
33%
28%
39%
|
75 | 57 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1986 |
FCA
0 - 1
STG
62%
21%
18%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1986 |
FCL
1 - 0
FCA
55%
23%
22%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Aug. 1986 |
FCA
0 - 5
NEX
40%
25%
35%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |