Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
82%
Win probability
3.34
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.2%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.8%
6-0
2.6%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.1%
5-0
4.7%
6-1
2.5%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
7.8%
4-0
7%
5-1
4.5%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
12.9%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
6.8%
5-2
2.2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.7%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
16.9%
10.8%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
4.3%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
10.8%
7.1%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
1.3%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
-1
4.9%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jun. 1981 |
BAS
1 - 1
NOB
89%
8%
3%
|
83 | 63 | 20 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1981 |
LAU
2 - 2
BAS
40%
26%
34%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 May. 1981 |
BEL
1 - 1
BAS
15%
24%
62%
|
83 | 60 | 23 | 0 |
| 16 May. 1981 |
BAS
4 - 4
FCL
84%
10%
7%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1981 |
SER
2 - 1
BAS
51%
24%
26%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |