Aubagne vs Thonon Évian analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.7%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.8%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
25.9%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
36
5º
15º
11º
48
4º
15º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
56 | 57 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
51 | 54 |
2º
|
36% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 52 |
3º
|
36% | |
|
|
5º
|
48 | 49 |
4º
|
36% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
36% | |
|
6º
|
42 | 43 |
6º
|
70% | |
|
7º
|
41 | 42 |
7º
|
35.5% | |
|
10º
|
35 | 41 |
8º
|
49% | |
|
8º
|
39 | 40 |
9º
|
37.5% | |
|
11º
|
35 | 39 |
10º
|
61.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
50.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
50.5% | |
|
13º
|
35 | 36 |
13º
|
50.5% | |
|
14º
|
32 | 33 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
26 | 29 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
12 | 12 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
50.5% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
49.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aubagne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 2022 |
ENT
1 - 4
AUB
11%
17%
72%
|
44 | 13 | 31 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
LYO
3 - 1
AUB
62%
22%
16%
|
45 | 51 | 6 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 2022 |
AUB
1 - 1
SÈT
31%
26%
43%
|
44 | 50 | 6 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
SPO
1 - 1
AUB
51%
25%
24%
|
44 | 47 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
FRE
3 - 1
AUB
60%
24%
16%
|
45 | 51 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Thonon Évian
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
THO
2 - 1
SAI
43%
25%
32%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2022 |
LYO
1 - 0
THO
64%
20%
15%
|
41 | 50 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2022 |
SÈT
2 - 3
THO
62%
22%
16%
|
40 | 50 | 10 | +1 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
THO
2 - 0
OLY
40%
25%
35%
|
38 | 42 | 4 | +2 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
THO
0 - 2
CSL
28%
24%
49%
|
40 | 46 | 6 | -2 |