ATSV Erlangen vs Fortuna Regensburg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
34.5%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.7%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
41.1%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.7%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.3%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.4%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
3º
8º
6º
6
1º
3º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
6 | 68 |
1º
|
44.5% | |
|
2º
|
6 | 63 |
2º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 61 |
3º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
0 | 61 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
5º
|
3 | 54 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
|
4º
|
4 | 52 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
6º
|
3 | 49 |
7º
|
9% | |
|
13º
|
1 | 46 |
8º
|
6.5% | |
|
3º
|
4 | 46 |
9º
|
7% | |
|
8º
|
3 | 46 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 43 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
7º
|
3 | 40 |
12º
|
13% | |
|
11º
|
2 | 39 |
13º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
0 | 36 |
14º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
3 | 22 |
15º
|
35.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 17 |
16º
|
38% | |
|
12º
|
1 | 15 |
17º
|
44.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
1.5% | 44.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
9% | 20.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
83.5% | 35% |
|
Relegation
|
6% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ATSV Erlangen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul. 2025 |
ATS
1 - 1
WUR
60%
22%
18%
|
54 | 48 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2025 |
NEU
4 - 5
ATS
34%
27%
39%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
ATS
0 - 6
BAY
24%
23%
54%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
ATS
6 - 1
FCE
66%
20%
14%
|
54 | 34 | 20 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2025 |
ELT
1 - 0
ATS
55%
26%
20%
|
54 | 61 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Fortuna Regensburg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
EIN
2 - 4
REG
24%
22%
54%
|
56 | 47 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2025 |
REG
3 - 1
NEU
76%
14%
9%
|
55 | 46 | 9 | +1 |
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
VIL
7 - 2
REG
64%
19%
17%
|
55 | 65 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
BAY
3 - 0
REG
28%
25%
47%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -2 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
REG
9 - 2
NEU
65%
19%
16%
|
55 | 51 | 4 | +2 |