Segunda Categoría - Ecuador Knock-outs 1/16
Global 14-0
Astillero vs SRP Mera analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
4.9%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.7%
27.3%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
14.8%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Astillero
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
CDM
0 - 3
AFC
62%
19%
20%
|
11 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
AFC
2 - 0
MMS
56%
20%
24%
|
10 | 8 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
MMS
0 - 1
AFC
48%
21%
31%
|
9 | 9 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
SRP Mera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
CDM
0 - 3
AFC
62%
19%
20%
|
13 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2023 |
SAC
0 - 2
CDM
89%
8%
3%
|
11 | 37 | 26 | +2 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
CDM
0 - 0
SAC
6%
12%
82%
|
9 | 37 | 28 | +2 |