UCL Qualifying Second Round Final
Global 2-1
Astana vs Zalgiris Vilnius analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43.3%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.1%
24%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
32.7%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Astana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2016 |
AST
2 - 1
ATY
61%
23%
16%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2016 |
ZAL
0 - 0
AST
46%
25%
29%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2016 |
AKZ
1 - 5
AST
22%
26%
52%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2016 |
AST
1 - 0
OKZ
52%
24%
24%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2016 |
KAI
1 - 0
AST
49%
25%
27%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Zalgiris Vilnius
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2016 |
ZAL
0 - 0
AST
46%
25%
29%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2016 |
TER
2 - 1
ZAL
43%
26%
32%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2016 |
STU
0 - 5
ZAL
21%
26%
53%
|
76 | 61 | 15 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 2016 |
KZA
0 - 6
ZAL
11%
16%
73%
|
76 | 51 | 25 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2016 |
ZAL
3 - 1
TRA
39%
26%
35%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |