UCL Qualifying 3rd Round Final
Global 4-3
Astana vs HJK Helsinki analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
51.2%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.1%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.6%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
23%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
25.8%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Astana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2015 |
HJK
0 - 0
AST
49%
24%
27%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2015 |
OKZ
1 - 2
AST
29%
27%
44%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2015 |
AST
3 - 1
MAR
52%
23%
25%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
AST
2 - 1
ZHE
76%
17%
8%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2015 |
MAR
1 - 0
AST
55%
22%
23%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
HJK Helsinki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2015 |
HJK
0 - 2
LIV
20%
23%
57%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2015 |
HJK
0 - 0
AST
49%
24%
27%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2015 |
HJK
2 - 1
KOO
77%
16%
7%
|
77 | 58 | 19 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2015 |
HJK
1 - 0
VEN
52%
23%
25%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2015 |
VEN
1 - 3
HJK
42%
26%
33%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |