Q. Europa League 1st Round Final
Global 0-6
Astana vs Botev Plovdiv analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
55.9%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.2%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
20.9%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.5%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Astana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun. 2013 |
AST
1 - 1
FCI
46%
26%
28%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2013 |
FCA
2 - 1
AST
45%
26%
29%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2013 |
AST
1 - 2
SHA
57%
24%
19%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2013 |
AST
1 - 0
SHA
53%
25%
22%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2013 |
VOS
1 - 3
AST
21%
26%
53%
|
77 | 63 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Botev Plovdiv
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May. 2013 |
BOT
3 - 0
ETA
81%
13%
6%
|
73 | 55 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2013 |
LUD
2 - 0
BOT
60%
22%
18%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
BOT
5 - 0
BVR
74%
17%
9%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | +1 |
| 13 May. 2013 |
0 - 2
BOT
37%
29%
35%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2013 |
BOT
0 - 0
LPL
50%
25%
26%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |