Assumption vs R-BAC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
69.5%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.8%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.7%
12.8%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Assumption
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2015 |
RAY
1 - 2
ASS
40%
24%
37%
|
31 | 26 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2015 |
ASS
3 - 2
CUS
33%
24%
42%
|
29 | 36 | 7 | +2 |
| 04 Apr. 2015 |
RJW
0 - 3
ASS
38%
24%
38%
|
29 | 25 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2015 |
ASS
0 - 1
KBE
55%
22%
24%
|
30 | 26 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 2015 |
BUD
1 - 2
ASS
57%
21%
22%
|
29 | 31 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
R-BAC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2015 |
RBA
3 - 4
NBC
27%
23%
50%
|
23 | 34 | 11 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2015 |
RAN
4 - 0
RBA
60%
21%
19%
|
24 | 28 | 4 | -1 |
| 04 Apr. 2015 |
RBA
0 - 3
ARM
38%
23%
39%
|
25 | 30 | 5 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 2015 |
RBA
0 - 1
BCC
37%
24%
40%
|
26 | 34 | 8 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 2015 |
RAY
4 - 0
RBA
46%
23%
31%
|
28 | 25 | 3 | -2 |