Assumption vs Nonthaburi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
74.1%
Win probability
2.53
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.2%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.9%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.4%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.7%
10.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.2%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Assumption
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2016 |
CHU
5 - 3
ASS
43%
24%
34%
|
31 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2016 |
ASS
2 - 1
HHC
56%
22%
23%
|
31 | 27 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2016 |
IPE
1 - 1
ASS
13%
18%
69%
|
31 | 16 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2016 |
ASS
1 - 0
SEE
37%
24%
40%
|
30 | 35 | 5 | +1 |
| 29 Apr. 2016 |
ASS
1 - 1
BTU
40%
23%
37%
|
31 | 33 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Nonthaburi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2016 |
NON
6 - 0
THC
41%
24%
34%
|
18 | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2016 |
MUA
2 - 3
NON
77%
15%
8%
|
17 | 27 | 10 | +1 |
| 15 May. 2016 |
CHU
2 - 0
NON
76%
15%
9%
|
18 | 29 | 11 | -1 |
| 07 May. 2016 |
NON
1 - 2
HHC
20%
22%
58%
|
18 | 27 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2016 |
IPE
1 - 2
NON
44%
22%
34%
|
18 | 17 | 1 | 0 |