Spezia vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
55.5%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.5%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.1%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
20.2%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.5%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spezia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2016 |
ASG
2 - 2
SPE
13%
20%
67%
|
72 | 49 | 23 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
SPE
2 - 0
MAC
71%
19%
10%
|
72 | 54 | 18 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2016 |
TRA
2 - 0
SPE
54%
23%
23%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | -1 |
| 28 May. 2016 |
SPE
0 - 1
TRA
37%
25%
38%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 May. 2016 |
CES
1 - 2
SPE
48%
25%
27%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul. 2016 |
MOD
2 - 0
FRA
72%
19%
10%
|
64 | 46 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2016 |
NOV
4 - 0
MOD
57%
25%
19%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | -1 |
| 14 May. 2016 |
MOD
2 - 5
PES
25%
26%
49%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | -1 |
| 07 May. 2016 |
SAL
0 - 0
MOD
47%
26%
27%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2016 |
MOD
1 - 1
CRO
25%
28%
47%
|
66 | 75 | 9 | 0 |