UCL Quarter-finals
Global 1-3
Arsenal vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58.1%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.5%
19.3%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 1972 |
LEY
0 - 1
ARS
23%
27%
50%
|
90 | 67 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1972 |
ARS
1 - 0
DER
63%
22%
16%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1972 |
NEW
2 - 0
ARS
37%
29%
34%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1972 |
AJA
2 - 1
ARS
65%
19%
16%
|
90 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1972 |
MAC
2 - 0
ARS
45%
27%
28%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 1972 |
NEC
0 - 1
AJA
17%
26%
57%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1972 |
AJA
4 - 1
PSV
77%
14%
9%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1972 |
AJA
2 - 1
ARS
65%
19%
16%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 1972 |
AJA
7 - 0
GRO
88%
9%
3%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | +1 |
| 26 Feb. 1972 |
EXC
0 - 4
AJA
10%
17%
73%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |