Arouca vs Varzim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.3%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.1%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
15.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.7%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
9.1%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
23.3%
14.4%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb. 2018 |
BRA
1 - 3
ARO
31%
27%
42%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2018 |
ARO
1 - 0
REA
70%
20%
10%
|
68 | 54 | 14 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2018 |
ACV
1 - 3
ARO
36%
28%
36%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 2018 |
ARO
0 - 0
COV
58%
24%
18%
|
67 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2018 |
POR
1 - 1
ARO
50%
25%
24%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Varzim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2018 |
VAR
2 - 0
FAM
43%
29%
28%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2018 |
PEN
2 - 3
VAR
56%
26%
18%
|
57 | 63 | 6 | +1 |
| 04 Feb. 2018 |
VAR
1 - 3
BEN
35%
28%
37%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Jan. 2018 |
GFC
0 - 1
VAR
47%
27%
27%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2018 |
VAR
1 - 1
LEX
30%
29%
41%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | 0 |