UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 3-2
APOEL vs Qarabağ analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59.9%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.3%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
18.2%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+38%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
APOEL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2019 |
APO
3 - 0
SUT
70%
19%
11%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2019 |
SUT
0 - 1
APO
30%
26%
45%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2019 |
SHA
1 - 0
APO
63%
20%
17%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2019 |
APO
1 - 4
RIJ
48%
24%
28%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2019 |
APO
0 - 1
ZIL
60%
21%
18%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Qarabağ
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul. 2019 |
QAR
3 - 0
DUN
39%
26%
34%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2019 |
DUN
1 - 1
QAR
56%
24%
21%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2019 |
QAR
2 - 0
PAR
60%
24%
16%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 10 Jul. 2019 |
PAR
0 - 0
QAR
31%
27%
42%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2019 |
QAR
2 - 2
VKP
30%
26%
44%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |