UCL Qualifying 3rd Round Final
Global 4-2
APOEL vs HJK Helsinki analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
55.6%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
21.1%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.7%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
APOEL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2014 |
HJK
2 - 2
APO
47%
26%
27%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2014 |
APO
2 - 0
ERG
74%
17%
9%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2014 |
GDA
1 - 2
APO
36%
27%
37%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2014 |
AEL
0 - 3
APO
48%
27%
25%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2014 |
APO
2 - 0
ERM
61%
21%
19%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
HJK Helsinki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2014 |
MYP
0 - 1
HJK
26%
27%
47%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2014 |
HJK
2 - 2
APO
47%
26%
27%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2014 |
INT
3 - 3
HJK
31%
27%
41%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2014 |
HJK
2 - 1
RAB
67%
19%
14%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2014 |
HJK
2 - 0
SEI
60%
22%
18%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |